{"F": {"ts_code": "688691.SH", "name": "灿芯股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "集成电路制造", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20240411", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 61.2, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.2455, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 734400.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.3, 17.1, 19.6, 26.2, 25.2, 16.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 13.0, 13.4, 10.9, 7.2], "np_series": [null, null, 0.9, 1.7, 0.6, -1.1], "roe_series": [8.2, 9.2, 16.8, 23.4, 5.6, -8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.2, "np_ttm": -1.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.0, "gm_median": 19.6, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 2.4, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 9.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.4, "fix_assets": 0.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.25, "capex_dep": 4.35, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 29.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 26.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -17.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 34.3, "np_yoy": -0.3, "np_vol": 158.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["芯片量产业务收入", 20.0], ["芯片量产业务", 20.0], ["芯片设计业务收入", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.7, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -40.0, "ret_pivot": 85.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.5, "ret_60": -34.8, "ret_120": -42.6, "ret_250": -24.7, "mdd_250": -64.4, "vol_250": 90.3, "pos_52w": 38.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 2, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 29%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.6%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 4.35 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 90%,现价在 52 周高点的 38%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -35% / -43%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "灿芯股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.0个百分点。"]}}