{"F": {"ts_code": "688687.SH", "name": "凯因科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "其他生物制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.85, "pe_ttm": 306.3061, "pb": 1.7891, "dv_ttm": 1.4006, "total_mv": 305135.754, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [87.1, 87.7, 86.6, 83.5, 81.9, 82.2], "rev_series": [8.6, 11.4, 11.6, 14.1, 12.3, 13.2], "np_series": [0.8, 1.1, 0.8, 1.2, 1.4, 0.3], "roe_series": [9.3, 8.5, 5.0, 6.8, 7.9, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.3, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.0, "ocf_yield": 3.4, "gm_median": 83.5, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.5, "fix_assets": 5.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.79, "capex_dep": 2.6, "interest_debt": 4.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 32.3, "debt_mv": 13.4, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.4, "np_cagr3": -28.4, "rev_yoy": -15.8, "np_yoy": -43.6, "np_vol": 45.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["化学药品", 66.0], ["生物药品", 30.0], ["其他业务", 2.0], ["其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.3, "ret_prev2_year": -38.3, "ret_ytd": -27.6, "ret_pivot": -7.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.7, "ret_60": 11.9, "ret_120": -12.8, "ret_250": -51.0, "mdd_250": -58.1, "vol_250": 36.2, "pos_52w": 49.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 83, "hard": 36, "bondness": 42}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 306.3 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 83.5%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 83.5%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 83.5%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 2.60 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 306.3 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -51%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 12% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "凯因科技:PE 比行业中位高 274.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点。"]}}