{"F": {"ts_code": "688686.SH", "name": "奥普特", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "其他自动化设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20201231", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 142.73, "pe_ttm": 82.8105, "pb": 5.4707, "dv_ttm": 0.3746, "total_mv": 1744667.2915, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [73.9, 66.5, 66.2, 64.2, 63.6, 60.9], "rev_series": [6.4, 8.8, 11.4, 9.4, 9.1, 12.7], "np_series": [2.4, 3.0, 3.2, 1.9, 1.4, 1.9], "roe_series": [17.1, 12.6, 12.3, 6.8, 4.7, 6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.9, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": -0.8, "gm_median": 64.2, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -7.7, "npm_median": 20.5, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.7, "fix_assets": 5.3, "goodwill_ratio": 2.0, "pb_calc": 5.47, "capex_dep": 1.61, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 17.2, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 34.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.6, "np_cagr3": -16.9, "rev_yoy": 32.5, "np_yoy": 16.8, "np_vol": 29.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 68.5, "fwd_pe2": 49.6, "fwd_g1": 21.0, "fwd_g2": 38.0, "peg": 1.8, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.2, "ret_prev2_year": -32.3, "ret_ytd": 15.5, "ret_pivot": 235.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.9, "ret_60": 15.0, "ret_120": 49.7, "ret_250": 9.2, "mdd_250": -42.2, "vol_250": 53.6, "pos_52w": 83.9}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 70, "hard": 22, "bondness": 31}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 82.8 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(14 篇研报)前瞻 PE 68.5 倍,次年 49.6 倍,PEG 1.80。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 64.2%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 64.2%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.61 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 82.8 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 19% / 15% / 50%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "奥普特:PE 比行业中位高 5.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 30.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点。"]}}