{"F": {"ts_code": "688685.SH", "name": "迈信林", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210513", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.74, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.856, "dv_ttm": 0.1192, "total_mv": 554218.3158, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.2, 31.8, 32.1, 28.5, 39.9, 34.3], "rev_series": [2.9, 3.2, 3.2, 2.9, 4.8, 4.6], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.4, 0.2, 0.5, 0.2], "roe_series": [13.2, 9.4, 6.2, 2.2, 6.4, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.4, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 6.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 11.1, "gm_median": 32.1, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": 12.2, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.9, "fix_assets": 14.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.86, "capex_dep": 3.49, "interest_debt": 15.5, "debt_ebitda": 8.8, "debt_ratio": 71.5, "debt_mv": 27.9, "payout": 50.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 12.4, "np_cagr3": -25.5, "rev_yoy": -6.7, "np_yoy": -73.8, "np_vol": 97.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 139.8, "fwd_pe2": 74.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 89.0, "peg": 1.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["销售商品及提供劳务", 27.0], ["销售商品", 27.0], ["提供服务及其他", 23.0], ["提供服务", 23.0]], "ret_prev_year": 68.0, "ret_prev2_year": 46.0, "ret_ytd": -31.9, "ret_pivot": 35.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.2, "ret_60": -12.3, "ret_120": -19.9, "ret_250": -38.1, "mdd_250": -50.9, "vol_250": 66.0, "pos_52w": 57.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 75, "bondness": 41}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 72%,有息负债 16 亿,经营现金流/市值 11.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 47%、毛利率 32.1% 两条都占,但所在行业(国防军工)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 11.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 3.49 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -12% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "迈信林:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 26.3个百分点。"]}}