{"F": {"ts_code": "688683.SH", "name": "莱尔科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "sw3": "电子化学品Ⅲ", "ind": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210412", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.47, "pe_ttm": 97.6333, "pb": 3.7913, "dv_ttm": 0.281, "total_mv": 458645.4366, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.3, 31.7, 26.1, 23.9, 23.9, 18.6], "rev_series": [4.0, 4.6, 4.8, 4.4, 5.3, 9.8], "np_series": [0.6, 0.7, 0.5, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [13.6, 10.2, 5.3, 3.0, 3.7, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.0, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 23.9, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -12.3, "npm_median": 7.0, "roe_median": 3.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.4, "fix_assets": 8.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 3.79, "capex_dep": 3.21, "interest_debt": 3.0, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 36.1, "debt_mv": 6.6, "payout": 29.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 27.1, "np_cagr3": -4.5, "rev_yoy": 83.4, "np_yoy": 27.0, "np_vol": 25.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 62.3, "fwd_pe2": 38.3, "fwd_g1": 57.0, "fwd_g2": 63.0, "peg": 0.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 48.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.4, "ret_prev2_year": -22.3, "ret_ytd": -10.0, "ret_pivot": 126.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.4, "ret_60": -24.3, "ret_120": -23.6, "ret_250": -11.1, "mdd_250": -47.5, "vol_250": 53.4, "pos_52w": 60.9}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 44, "hard": 66, "bondness": 21}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 97.6 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%、固定资产占比 41%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 3.21 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 97.6 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -24% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电子化学品Ⅱ」36 家中位:PE 93.9 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 29.9% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 44%。", "莱尔科技:PE 比行业中位高 3.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点。"]}}