{"F": {"ts_code": "688682.SH", "name": "霍莱沃", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210420", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.74, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.2573, "dv_ttm": 0.6506, "total_mv": 313052.7786, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.1, 42.6, 41.8, 33.8, 39.0, 24.8], "rev_series": [2.3, 3.3, 3.4, 3.9, 2.7, 3.0], "np_series": [0.4, 0.6, 0.5, 0.3, 0.1, -0.2], "roe_series": [24.1, 15.3, 8.1, 4.2, 2.2, -3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.2, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 2.7, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 39.0, "gm_std": 6.6, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 2.7, "npm_median": 10.5, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.4, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": 7.2, "pb_calc": 5.26, "capex_dep": 2.98, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 26.0, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 86.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 15.9, "np_yoy": 1194.5, "np_vol": 101.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 115.0, "ret_prev2_year": -27.0, "ret_ytd": -41.7, "ret_pivot": 76.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": -26.5, "ret_120": -31.5, "ret_250": -18.2, "mdd_250": -60.5, "vol_250": 63.2, "pos_52w": 44.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 58, "hard": 12, "bondness": 57}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 39.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.0%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 2.98 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -26% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "霍莱沃:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点。"]}}