{"F": {"ts_code": "688678.SH", "name": "福立旺", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20201223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.97, "pe_ttm": 56.9191, "pb": 3.4467, "dv_ttm": 0.3577, "total_mv": 805003.6805, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.2, 33.9, 32.2, 28.3, 24.4, 22.2], "rev_series": [5.2, 7.3, 9.3, 9.9, 12.9, 19.7], "np_series": [1.1, 1.2, 1.6, 0.9, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [12.1, 9.0, 11.3, 5.9, 3.5, 3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.3, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": -2.1, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 28.3, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -9.0, "npm_median": 9.3, "roe_median": 5.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.0, "fix_assets": 18.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 3.45, "capex_dep": 1.88, "interest_debt": 7.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 44.8, "debt_mv": 9.1, "payout": 45.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 28.6, "np_cagr3": -30.1, "rev_yoy": 65.1, "np_yoy": 486.1, "np_vol": 29.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 32.7, "fwd_pe2": 27.0, "fwd_g1": 74.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["精密零部件", 27.0], ["3C精密零部件", 27.0], ["汽车精密零部件", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 64.4, "ret_prev2_year": 15.0, "ret_ytd": 16.1, "ret_pivot": 228.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.1, "ret_60": -2.1, "ret_120": 11.4, "ret_250": 1.5, "mdd_250": -47.6, "vol_250": 62.3, "pos_52w": 75.5}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 47, "hard": 69, "bondness": 23}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 56.9 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.3%、固定资产占比 43%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.3%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.3%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 1.88 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 56.9 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -2% / 11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "福立旺:PE 比行业中位高 10.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.2个百分点。"]}}