{"F": {"ts_code": "688669.SH", "name": "聚石化学", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "改性塑料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 69.98, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 8.1557, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 849090.4334, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.5, 16.1, 12.0, 13.6, 10.4, 12.4], "rev_series": [19.2, 25.4, 39.6, 36.7, 40.8, 39.3], "np_series": [1.6, 0.8, 0.5, 0.3, -2.4, -1.5], "roe_series": [27.3, 7.7, 2.9, 1.8, -16.4, -12.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 36.4, "np_ttm": -2.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 12.4, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -12.5, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 1.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.5, "fix_assets": 21.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 8.16, "capex_dep": 0.5, "interest_debt": 21.9, "debt_ebitda": 19.0, "debt_ratio": 76.4, "debt_mv": 25.8, "payout": 83.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -0.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -14.9, "np_yoy": -3746.5, "np_vol": 362.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["塑料制品", 21.0], ["改性塑料粒子", 13.0], ["磷化学品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.5, "ret_prev2_year": -16.7, "ret_ytd": 201.1, "ret_pivot": 634.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.7, "ret_60": 43.7, "ret_120": 155.3, "ret_250": 166.1, "mdd_250": -49.9, "vol_250": 68.9, "pos_52w": 62.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 65, "bondness": 64}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 40%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 19.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 0.50 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 166%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 44% / 155%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "聚石化学:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.6个百分点。"]}}