{"F": {"ts_code": "688668.SH", "name": "鼎通科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20201221", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 251.43, "pe_ttm": 113.3628, "pb": 16.6826, "dv_ttm": 0.1591, "total_mv": 3501680.6958, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.3, 34.8, 35.7, 28.0, 27.4, 30.1], "rev_series": [3.6, 5.7, 8.4, 6.8, 10.3, 15.9], "np_series": [0.7, 1.1, 1.7, 0.7, 1.1, 2.4], "roe_series": [14.3, 14.2, 13.3, 3.9, 6.2, 12.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.3, "np_ttm": 3.1, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 30.1, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": 15.2, "roe_median": 12.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.2, "fix_assets": 11.5, "goodwill_ratio": 2.5, "pb_calc": 15.5, "capex_dep": 4.04, "interest_debt": 8.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 40.3, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": 62.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 23.7, "np_cagr3": 12.6, "rev_yoy": 31.2, "np_yoy": 59.2, "np_vol": 58.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 52.3, "fwd_pe2": 23.6, "fwd_g1": 117.0, "fwd_g2": 121.0, "peg": 0.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 47.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 170.1, "ret_prev2_year": 20.2, "ret_ytd": 103.4, "ret_pivot": 719.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.4, "ret_60": -38.8, "ret_120": 88.1, "ret_250": 138.3, "mdd_250": -59.8, "vol_250": 93.7, "pos_52w": 58.2}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 52, "hard": 48, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 113.4 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 30.1%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 30%、毛利率 30.1% 两条都占,但所在行业(通信)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.1%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 4.04 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 113.4 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 138%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 94%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -39% / 88%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "鼎通科技:PE 比行业中位高 28.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.0个百分点。"]}}