{"F": {"ts_code": "688667.SH", "name": "菱电电控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210312", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 88.5, "pe_ttm": 29.6458, "pb": 2.5692, "dv_ttm": 0.904, "total_mv": 466355.175, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.2, 31.0, 35.8, 26.3, 19.4, 25.4], "rev_series": [7.6, 8.3, 7.1, 10.1, 12.0, 11.9], "np_series": [1.6, 1.4, 0.7, 0.5, 0.2, 1.4], "roe_series": [49.4, 15.3, 4.6, 3.2, 1.0, 8.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.2, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 4.2, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 26.3, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 2.7, "npm_median": 9.4, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.4, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.57, "capex_dep": 0.89, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 18.8, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 30.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.8, "np_cagr3": 26.5, "rev_yoy": -28.1, "np_yoy": 50.4, "np_vol": 316.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 28.6, "fwd_pe2": 7.1, "fwd_g1": 4.0, "fwd_g2": 306.0, "peg": 0.09, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品销售收入", 79.0], ["技术开发收入", 11.0], ["技术开发", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 77.2, "ret_prev2_year": -51.4, "ret_ytd": 27.1, "ret_pivot": 201.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.3, "ret_60": -18.3, "ret_120": -8.9, "ret_250": 30.0, "mdd_250": -53.2, "vol_250": 60.6, "pos_52w": 52.3}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 50, "hard": 21, "bondness": 17}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 50%,PE TTM 29.6 倍 但前瞻 PE 28.6 倍,PEG 0.09。", "自由现金流 2.0 亿(正),次年预期增速 306%(1 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.89 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.6 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 30%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -18% / -9%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "菱电电控:PE 比行业中位低 0.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.1个百分点。"]}}