{"F": {"ts_code": "688663.SH", "name": "新风光", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电网自动化设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210413", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 54.38, "pe_ttm": 123.7661, "pb": 7.6393, "dv_ttm": 0.286, "total_mv": 1072634.624, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.5, 28.2, 26.3, 27.6, 23.3, 21.8], "rev_series": [8.4, 9.4, 13.0, 17.0, 19.2, 20.1], "np_series": [1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.7, 1.7, 1.0], "roe_series": [20.7, 14.4, 11.7, 13.7, 13.1, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.6, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 26.3, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": 9.8, "roe_median": 13.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.3, "fix_assets": 2.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.64, "capex_dep": -0.03, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 58.2, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 42.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.5, "np_cagr3": -9.5, "rev_yoy": -16.7, "np_yoy": -14.5, "np_vol": 25.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 39.1, "fwd_pe2": 24.8, "fwd_g1": 216.0, "fwd_g2": 58.0, "peg": 0.67, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["电能质量监测与治理类", 14.0], ["电能质量监测与治理产品", 14.0], ["电机驱动与控制类", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 84.5, "ret_prev2_year": -21.8, "ret_ytd": 97.5, "ret_pivot": 388.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.5, "ret_60": -10.6, "ret_120": 23.0, "ret_250": 124.7, "mdd_250": -40.8, "vol_250": 64.8, "pos_52w": 75.5}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 48, "hard": 10, "bondness": 21}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 123.8 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 39.1 倍,次年 24.8 倍,PEG 0.67。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 -0.03 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 123.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 125%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -11% / 23%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "新风光:PE 比行业中位高 80.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.6个百分点。"]}}