{"F": {"ts_code": "688659.SH", "name": "元琛科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210331", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.29, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.3201, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 164640.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.0, 31.4, 24.6, 28.0, 25.2, 27.9], "rev_series": [4.6, 5.0, 5.8, 5.2, 6.3, 7.0], "np_series": [0.6, 0.7, 0.1, -0.3, -0.6, -0.3], "roe_series": [17.0, 13.4, 1.0, -4.0, -10.5, -5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.6, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": -2.3, "gm_median": 27.9, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -16.3, "npm_median": -4.4, "roe_median": -4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.9, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.32, "capex_dep": -0.2, "interest_debt": 4.8, "debt_ebitda": 11.7, "debt_ratio": 64.7, "debt_mv": 29.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 6.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 16.6, "np_yoy": -315.6, "np_vol": 199.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["脱硝催化剂", 29.0], ["滤袋", 11.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.0, "ret_prev2_year": -45.8, "ret_ytd": 8.9, "ret_pivot": 96.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.4, "ret_60": 8.7, "ret_120": -4.6, "ret_250": -6.1, "mdd_250": -34.7, "vol_250": 38.9, "pos_52w": 84.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 43, "bondness": 28}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 65%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 -2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 -0.20 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 9% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "元琛科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.6个百分点。"]}}