{"F": {"ts_code": "688657.SH", "name": "浩辰软件", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20231010", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.18, "pe_ttm": 66.296, "pb": 2.194, "dv_ttm": 1.2704, "total_mv": 307062.5254, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [92.5, 92.5, 91.8, 91.5, 92.0, 92.6], "rev_series": [1.9, 2.4, 2.4, 2.8, 2.9, 3.3], "np_series": [0.5, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.6, 0.5], "roe_series": [37.8, 37.0, 23.8, 6.4, 4.5, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.7, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 3.0, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 92.0, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 1.0, "gm_chg_2022": -0.8, "npm_median": 21.9, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.0, "fix_assets": 0.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.19, "capex_dep": 3.26, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 7.9, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 72.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.3, "np_cagr3": -6.6, "rev_yoy": 25.8, "np_yoy": -16.9, "np_vol": 24.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 41.3, "fwd_pe2": 27.3, "fwd_g1": 61.0, "fwd_g2": 51.0, "peg": 0.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["软件业务", 32.0], ["CAD软件包", 32.0], ["云及数字化服务", 10.0], ["云化业务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.1, "ret_prev2_year": -29.6, "ret_ytd": -10.7, "ret_pivot": 71.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.0, "ret_60": -10.6, "ret_120": -1.1, "ret_250": -19.0, "mdd_250": -36.5, "vol_250": 43.1, "pos_52w": 78.3}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 88, "hard": 5, "bondness": 42}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 66.3 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 3%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 41.3 倍,次年 27.3 倍,PEG 0.81。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 92.0%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 92.0%,稳定度 100%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 3.26 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 66.3 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -11% / -1%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "浩辰软件:PE 比行业中位低 16.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 43.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.8个百分点。"]}}