{"F": {"ts_code": "688655.SH", "name": "迅捷兴", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210511", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 42.1, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 8.342, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 561571.9, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.0, 26.5, 23.4, 18.4, 18.3, 14.4], "rev_series": [4.5, 5.6, 4.4, 4.6, 4.7, 6.9], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.5, 0.1, -0.0, -0.2], "roe_series": [15.9, 12.4, 7.0, 2.0, -0.3, -3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.2, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -2.2, "ocf_yield": -0.7, "gm_median": 18.4, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -7.7, "npm_median": 2.9, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.1, "fix_assets": 7.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 8.34, "capex_dep": 1.34, "interest_debt": 3.4, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 58.1, "debt_mv": 6.0, "payout": 75.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 15.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 77.5, "np_yoy": 615.6, "np_vol": 395.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 52.6, "fwd_pe2": 35.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 50.0, "peg": 1.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 46.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 58.9, "ret_prev2_year": -28.3, "ret_ytd": 145.8, "ret_pivot": 393.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.9, "ret_60": -10.4, "ret_120": 56.8, "ret_250": 65.2, "mdd_250": -58.0, "vol_250": 83.9, "pos_52w": 63.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 74, "bondness": 44}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 77%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 1.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 65%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 84%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -10% / 57%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "迅捷兴:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.2个百分点。"]}}