{"F": {"ts_code": "688653.SH", "name": "康希通信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "模拟芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20231117", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.47, "pe_ttm": 663.3304, "pb": 3.8973, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 571774.56, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.7, 27.2, 26.6, 28.1, 21.8, 23.7], "rev_series": [null, null, 4.2, 4.1, 5.2, 6.8], "np_series": [null, null, 0.2, 0.1, -0.8, -0.4], "roe_series": [-35.8, 2.3, 2.1, 0.8, -4.9, -3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.5, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.0, "gm_median": 26.6, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 2.4, "roe_median": 0.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.8, "fix_assets": 0.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.9, "capex_dep": 1.07, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 4.9, "debt_ratio": 11.2, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 17.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 20.6, "np_yoy": 211.3, "np_vol": 367.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["Wi-Fi射频前端模组", 32.0], ["Wi-Fi FEM", 32.0], ["IoT射频前端模组", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.3, "ret_prev2_year": -36.6, "ret_ytd": 10.9, "ret_pivot": 30.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.3, "ret_60": -3.1, "ret_120": -0.9, "ret_250": -6.4, "mdd_250": -39.0, "vol_250": 50.8, "pos_52w": 77.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 1, "bondness": 17}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 663 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 11%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.6%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 1.07 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 663.3 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -3% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "康希通信:PE 比行业中位高 581.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.6个百分点。"]}}