{"F": {"ts_code": "688651.SH", "name": "盛邦安全", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "横向通用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230726", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.81, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.7476, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 244035.833, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [75.5, 78.8, 77.7, 75.0, 72.6, 65.5], "rev_series": [1.5, 2.0, 2.4, 2.9, 2.9, 3.1], "np_series": [0.3, 0.5, 0.5, 0.4, 0.0, -0.5], "roe_series": [24.0, 23.0, 18.5, 6.7, 0.2, -5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.9, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": -1.0, "gm_median": 75.0, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 2.2, "npm_median": 14.6, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.0, "fix_assets": 0.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 2.75, "capex_dep": 6.59, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 17.0, "debt_mv": 1.1, "payout": 18.3, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 9.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -16.1, "np_yoy": -11.3, "np_vol": 1203.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["主营业务", 50.0], ["产品", 50.0], ["其他业务", -0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.5, "ret_prev2_year": -24.7, "ret_ytd": -26.4, "ret_pivot": 29.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": 2.2, "ret_120": -27.1, "ret_250": -15.4, "mdd_250": -55.3, "vol_250": 57.1, "pos_52w": 54.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 80, "hard": 2, "bondness": 20}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 17%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 75.0%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 -1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 75.0%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 6.59 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 2% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "盛邦安全:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 26.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.8个百分点。"]}}