{"F": {"ts_code": "688648.SH", "name": "中邮科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20231113", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.43, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1359, "dv_ttm": 0.7478, "total_mv": 454648.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.3, 16.0, 14.5, 15.9, 7.4, 8.2], "rev_series": [null, null, 22.2, 19.5, 9.1, 13.9], "np_series": [null, null, 0.8, 0.7, -1.5, 6.3], "roe_series": [6.0, 8.5, 6.7, 4.9, -9.0, 33.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.7, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": -3.1, "fcf_ttm": -4.2, "fcf_yield": -9.2, "ocf_yield": -6.9, "gm_median": 14.5, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.9, "fix_assets": 5.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.14, "capex_dep": 1.92, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 36.7, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 14.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -14.5, "np_cagr3": 99.4, "rev_yoy": 87.9, "np_yoy": -103.4, "np_vol": 269.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["智能物流系统", 38.0], ["备品备件及技术服务", 6.0], ["备品备件、技术服务、一体化运营服务等", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 165.7, "ret_prev2_year": -11.1, "ret_ytd": -45.4, "ret_pivot": 90.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.4, "ret_60": -4.6, "ret_120": -45.6, "ret_250": -48.8, "mdd_250": -61.2, "vol_250": 57.8, "pos_52w": 46.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 37, "hard": 25, "bondness": 33}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 37%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -6.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.2%(经营现金流/市值 -6.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.5%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 1.92 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -49%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -5% / -46%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "中邮科技:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点。"]}}