{"F": {"ts_code": "688646.SH", "name": "逸飞激光", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "激光设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230728", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 75.58, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.0031, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 711680.9308, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.1, 31.8, 34.7, 33.2, 25.5, 19.1], "rev_series": [2.1, 4.0, 5.4, 7.0, 6.9, 8.0], "np_series": [0.1, 0.4, 0.9, 1.0, 0.2, -0.5], "roe_series": [5.3, 12.0, 18.0, 8.7, 1.6, -3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.5, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 31.8, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 2.6, "npm_median": 10.6, "roe_median": 8.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.8, "fix_assets": 4.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 5.0, "capex_dep": 5.32, "interest_debt": 3.9, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 61.0, "debt_mv": 5.4, "payout": 62.9, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 14.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 56.2, "np_yoy": -186.9, "np_vol": 185.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["自动化生产线", 29.0], ["自动化产线", 29.0], ["智慧物流装备及信息系统集成", 17.0], ["智慧物流装备与系统", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.9, "ret_prev2_year": -6.8, "ret_ytd": 111.8, "ret_pivot": 232.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.0, "ret_60": 18.3, "ret_120": 46.0, "ret_250": 130.3, "mdd_250": -32.2, "vol_250": 54.8, "pos_52w": 95.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 54, "hard": 20, "bondness": 31}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 61%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 31.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.8%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 5.32 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 130%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 18% / 46%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "逸飞激光:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点。"]}}