{"F": {"ts_code": "688639.SH", "name": "华恒生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.7, "pe_ttm": 37.3976, "pb": 1.6358, "dv_ttm": 0.9022, "total_mv": 442704.789, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.5, 32.3, 38.7, 40.5, 24.9, 21.3], "rev_series": [4.9, 9.5, 14.2, 19.4, 21.8, 28.6], "np_series": [1.2, 1.7, 3.2, 4.5, 1.9, 1.3], "roe_series": [28.2, 20.1, 24.0, 27.2, 8.6, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.0, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -5.6, "fcf_yield": -12.5, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 32.3, "gm_std": 7.5, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -4.9, "npm_median": 17.6, "roe_median": 20.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 62.6, "fix_assets": 38.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.64, "capex_dep": 2.5, "interest_debt": 25.0, "debt_ebitda": 5.6, "debt_ratio": 56.3, "debt_mv": 56.5, "payout": 31.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 26.4, "np_cagr3": -25.5, "rev_yoy": 9.6, "np_yoy": -12.2, "np_vol": 53.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 16.5, "fwd_pe2": 12.6, "fwd_g1": 126.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 0.52, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["氨基酸系列", 26.0], ["氨基酸产品", 26.0], ["其他业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.9, "ret_prev2_year": -62.9, "ret_ytd": -45.4, "ret_pivot": -32.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": -14.1, "ret_120": -50.8, "ret_250": -51.2, "mdd_250": -62.6, "vol_250": 49.5, "pos_52w": 43.0}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 47, "hard": 100, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 37.4 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 32.3%、固定资产占比 63%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 63%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.3%,稳定度 77%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -12.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.3%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 63%,资本开支/折旧 2.50 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.4 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -51%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 43%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -14% / -51%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "华恒生物:PE 比行业中位高 1.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.1个百分点。"]}}