{"F": {"ts_code": "688638.SH", "name": "誉辰智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电专用设备", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230712", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.75, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.4798, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 183400.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.3, 33.8, 27.8, 17.7, 9.1, 19.3], "rev_series": [2.0, 3.7, 7.1, 11.2, 5.1, 7.2], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.8, 0.6, -1.3, -1.5], "roe_series": [45.8, 34.5, 28.8, 7.9, -12.2, -17.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.6, "np_ttm": -1.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -4.5, "ocf_yield": -2.4, "gm_median": 19.3, "gm_std": 8.5, "gm_stab": 0.56, "gm_chg_2022": -13.5, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.7, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 2.5, "pb_calc": 2.48, "capex_dep": 3.78, "interest_debt": 3.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 73.3, "debt_mv": 20.2, "payout": 8.5, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 0.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 12.2, "np_yoy": -36.8, "np_vol": 138.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["锂电设备", 15.0], ["锂电池制造设备", 15.0], ["消费类锂离子电池", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.8, "ret_prev2_year": -34.7, "ret_ytd": -9.9, "ret_pivot": 55.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.5, "ret_60": -1.4, "ret_120": -19.6, "ret_250": -17.6, "mdd_250": -48.1, "vol_250": 46.2, "pos_52w": 66.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 33, "hard": 14, "bondness": 26}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 73%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.5%(经营现金流/市值 -2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%,稳定度 56%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 3.78 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -1% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "誉辰智能:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 19.1个百分点。"]}}