{"F": {"ts_code": "688636.SH", "name": "智明达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210408", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.41, "pe_ttm": 30.1935, "pb": 2.4742, "dv_ttm": 0.49, "total_mv": 354942.9624, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [62.8, 61.1, 51.9, 43.6, 44.8, 44.8], "rev_series": [3.2, 4.5, 5.4, 6.6, 4.4, 7.1], "np_series": [0.9, 1.1, 0.8, 1.0, 0.2, 1.0], "roe_series": [26.0, 17.7, 8.1, 9.3, 1.8, 8.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.1, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -3.5, "ocf_yield": -3.1, "gm_median": 44.8, "gm_std": 6.6, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -10.9, "npm_median": 14.4, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.9, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.47, "capex_dep": 0.75, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 30.3, "debt_mv": 5.2, "payout": 16.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.4, "np_cagr3": 10.7, "rev_yoy": 0.7, "np_yoy": 40.1, "np_vol": 180.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 23.5, "fwd_pe2": 18.1, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.78, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["机载嵌入式计算机", 28.0], ["机载产品", 28.0], ["弹载嵌入式计算机", 15.0], ["弹载", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 129.0, "ret_prev2_year": -35.8, "ret_ytd": -52.2, "ret_pivot": 81.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": -41.6, "ret_120": -52.5, "ret_250": -47.3, "mdd_250": -72.6, "vol_250": 62.2, "pos_52w": 34.1}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 56, "hard": 21, "bondness": 23}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 30.2 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 44.8%、固定资产占比 13%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.8%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.5%(经营现金流/市值 -3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.75 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.2 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -47%,最大回撤 -73%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 34%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -42% / -52%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "智明达:PE 比行业中位低 48.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点。"]}}