{"F": {"ts_code": "688635.SH", "name": "长进光子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信线缆及配套", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20260527", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 262.3, "pe_ttm": 264.055, "pb": 16.2831, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2456964.1, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, 66.4, 69.3, 69.1, 64.8], "rev_series": [null, null, 1.1, 1.4, 1.9, 2.5], "np_series": [null, null, 0.4, 0.5, 0.8, 1.0], "roe_series": [null, null, 14.7, 18.1, 19.4, 18.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.4, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 67.7, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 38.3, "roe_median": 18.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.1, "fix_assets": 3.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 16.28, "capex_dep": 14.51, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 14.8, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 31.6, "np_cagr3": 37.5, "rev_yoy": -3.6, "np_yoy": -7.6, "np_vol": 56.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 170.3, "fwd_pe2": 121.4, "fwd_g1": 55.0, "fwd_g2": 40.0, "peg": 4.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["掺稀土光纤", 34.0], ["其他特种光纤及器件", 12.0], ["传能光纤", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.1, "ret_60": -41.2, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -72.2, "vol_250": 121.1, "pos_52w": 36.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 75, "hard": 31, "bondness": 4}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 264.1 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 170.3 倍,次年 121.4 倍,PEG 4.26。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 67.7%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 67.7%,稳定度 97%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 14.51 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 264.1 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "长进光子:PE 比行业中位高 179.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 38.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点。"]}}