{"F": {"ts_code": "688633.SH", "name": "星球石墨", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210324", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.93, "pe_ttm": 15.786, "pb": 1.6324, "dv_ttm": 2.609, "total_mv": 390728.5758, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.4, 41.6, 39.8, 36.9, 43.7, 40.8], "rev_series": [5.6, 5.1, 6.5, 7.7, 6.3, 8.1], "np_series": [1.5, 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 1.5, 1.7], "roe_series": [28.4, 13.5, 11.0, 10.3, 9.5, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.3, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_yield": 6.9, "ocf_yield": 7.5, "gm_median": 40.8, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -5.6, "npm_median": 21.8, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.1, "fix_assets": 4.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.63, "capex_dep": 0.46, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 25.2, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 34.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.4, "np_cagr3": 6.1, "rev_yoy": 41.0, "np_yoy": 168.2, "np_vol": 12.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.3, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 13.8, "fwd_pe2": 10.1, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 37.0, "peg": 0.37, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.6, "ret_prev2_year": 27.0, "ret_ytd": -0.6, "ret_pivot": 42.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.2, "ret_60": -20.2, "ret_120": -6.7, "ret_250": -12.3, "mdd_250": -46.2, "vol_250": 47.5, "pos_52w": 59.9}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 57, "hard": 23, "bondness": 40}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 168%,PE TTM 15.8 倍 但前瞻 PE 13.8 倍,PEG 0.37。", "自由现金流 2.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 37%(1 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 40.8%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.9%(经营现金流/市值 7.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.46 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.8 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -20% / -7%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "星球石墨:PE 比行业中位低 26.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点。"]}}