{"F": {"ts_code": "688630.SH", "name": "芯碁微装", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210401", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 370.8, "pe_ttm": 126.5384, "pb": 10.3447, "dv_ttm": 0.1888, "total_mv": 5432412.816, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.4, 42.8, 43.2, 42.6, 37.0, 40.2], "rev_series": [3.1, 4.9, 6.5, 8.3, 9.5, 14.1], "np_series": [0.7, 1.1, 1.4, 1.8, 1.6, 2.9], "roe_series": [19.0, 15.8, 13.8, 11.6, 7.8, 13.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.6, "np_ttm": 4.3, "ocf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 42.6, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -0.2, "npm_median": 20.9, "roe_median": 13.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.2, "fix_assets": 3.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.34, "capex_dep": 5.72, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 19.1, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 31.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 29.2, "np_cagr3": 28.5, "rev_yoy": 69.0, "np_yoy": 98.1, "np_vol": 29.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 19, "fwd_pe": 89.8, "fwd_pe2": 58.6, "fwd_g1": 41.0, "fwd_g2": 53.0, "peg": 1.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["激光直写成像设备", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 136.2, "ret_prev2_year": -32.2, "ret_ytd": 177.1, "ret_pivot": 682.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.2, "ret_60": -5.8, "ret_120": 107.6, "ret_250": 181.9, "mdd_250": -46.0, "vol_250": 82.4, "pos_52w": 66.8}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 62, "hard": 8, "bondness": 12}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 126.5 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 5%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(19 篇研报)前瞻 PE 89.8 倍,次年 58.6 倍,PEG 1.69。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 42.6%),硬资产占比 5%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 42.6%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 5.72 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 126.5 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 182%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 82%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -6% / 108%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "芯碁微装:PE 比行业中位高 84.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.8个百分点。"]}}