{"F": {"ts_code": "688623.SH", "name": "双元科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "其他自动化设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 55.81, "pe_ttm": 68.4724, "pb": 2.2555, "dv_ttm": 1.1787, "total_mv": 477243.0301, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.7, 44.2, 43.7, 45.2, 37.7, 37.4], "rev_series": [1.7, 2.6, 3.7, 4.3, 3.9, 3.4], "np_series": [0.4, 0.6, 1.0, 1.3, 0.9, 0.6], "roe_series": [34.8, 27.0, 28.9, 10.4, 4.0, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.6, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 43.7, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 22.5, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.0, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.26, "capex_dep": 1.15, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 22.6, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 90.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -2.8, "np_cagr3": -13.5, "rev_yoy": 12.8, "np_yoy": 19.7, "np_vol": 40.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["在线自动化检测系统", 30.0], ["在线检测系统", 30.0], ["机器视觉检测", 19.0], ["机器视觉智能检测系统", 19.0]], "ret_prev_year": 76.6, "ret_prev2_year": -21.5, "ret_ytd": -13.0, "ret_pivot": 79.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.1, "ret_60": -11.2, "ret_120": -17.6, "ret_250": 15.3, "mdd_250": -28.9, "vol_250": 42.4, "pos_52w": 71.1}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 59, "hard": 11, "bondness": 59}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 68.5 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.7%),硬资产占比 7%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 1.15 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 68.5 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 15%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -11% / -18%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "双元科技:PE 比行业中位低 8.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.8个百分点。"]}}