{"F": {"ts_code": "688622.SH", "name": "*ST禾信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210913", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 100.0, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 24.7937, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 704655.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [64.5, 51.7, 49.8, 38.5, 36.5, 35.5], "rev_series": [3.1, 4.6, 2.8, 3.7, 2.0, 1.0], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, -0.6, -1.0, -0.5, -0.9], "roe_series": [32.3, 18.4, -11.2, -19.9, -11.2, -27.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 0.8, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 38.5, "gm_std": 6.9, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -14.6, "npm_median": -26.2, "roe_median": -11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.7, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 24.79, "capex_dep": 1.75, "interest_debt": 3.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 64.2, "debt_mv": 4.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -29.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -34.3, "np_yoy": -11.3, "np_vol": 83.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["数据分析服务", 13.0], ["数据分析", 13.0], ["环保在线监测仪器", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 66.9, "ret_prev2_year": 68.6, "ret_ytd": -1.1, "ret_pivot": 445.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.5, "ret_60": -14.2, "ret_120": 30.1, "ret_250": -10.4, "mdd_250": -57.9, "vol_250": 93.4, "pos_52w": 63.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 86, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 64%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 38.5%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.5%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 1.75 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 93%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -14% / 30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "*ST禾信:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 32.9个百分点。"]}}