{"F": {"ts_code": "688621.SH", "name": "阳光诺和", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医疗研发外包", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210621", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 70.65, "pe_ttm": 159.4213, "pb": 6.5858, "dv_ttm": 0.2583, "total_mv": 791280.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.6, 53.4, 55.5, 56.7, 50.2, 54.1], "rev_series": [3.5, 4.9, 6.8, 9.3, 10.8, 12.2], "np_series": [0.7, 1.1, 1.6, 1.8, 1.8, 2.0], "roe_series": [47.4, 22.2, 18.8, 19.1, 16.6, 17.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.6, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 54.1, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 5.9, "npm_median": 19.6, "roe_median": 18.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.7, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 6.59, "capex_dep": 1.68, "interest_debt": 6.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 46.3, "debt_mv": 8.6, "payout": 10.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 21.8, "np_cagr3": 9.3, "rev_yoy": -27.8, "np_yoy": -118.8, "np_vol": 19.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 33.7, "fwd_pe2": 29.4, "fwd_g1": 373.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 2.25, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["药学研究服务", 18.0], ["临床试验和生物分析服务", 16.0], ["临床试验及生物分析服务", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.9, "ret_prev2_year": -46.1, "ret_ytd": 14.0, "ret_pivot": 144.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.9, "ret_60": 47.5, "ret_120": 14.8, "ret_250": -11.5, "mdd_250": -41.9, "vol_250": 51.8, "pos_52w": 85.9}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 72, "hard": 9, "bondness": 17}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 159.4 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 33.7 倍,次年 29.4 倍,PEG 2.25。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 54.1%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 54.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.68 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 159.4 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 48% / 15%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "阳光诺和:PE 比行业中位高 86.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.2个百分点。"]}}