{"F": {"ts_code": "688613.SH", "name": "奥精医疗", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗耗材", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210521", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.79, "pe_ttm": 251.0147, "pb": 1.5057, "dv_ttm": 0.1925, "total_mv": 216336.5794, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [83.8, 85.4, 83.4, 82.7, 71.1, 68.7], "rev_series": [1.8, 2.4, 2.5, 2.3, 2.1, 2.2], "np_series": [0.9, 1.2, 1.0, 0.5, -0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [15.4, 12.9, 7.5, 4.0, -0.9, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.3, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 82.7, "gm_std": 6.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 23.4, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.3, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.6, "pb_calc": 1.51, "capex_dep": 1.27, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 4.8, "debt_mv": 1.4, "payout": 29.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -3.0, "np_cagr3": -47.4, "rev_yoy": 4.0, "np_yoy": -65.5, "np_vol": 111.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["骼金", 40.0], ["颅瑞", 4.0], ["口腔种植体", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.6, "ret_prev2_year": -18.8, "ret_ytd": -22.1, "ret_pivot": 21.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.2, "ret_60": 0.2, "ret_120": -34.3, "ret_250": -23.5, "mdd_250": -54.1, "vol_250": 51.3, "pos_52w": 55.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 81, "hard": 18, "bondness": 35}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 251.0 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 82.7%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 82.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 1.27 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 251.0 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 0% / -34%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "奥精医疗:PE 比行业中位高 212.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 27.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.6个百分点。"]}}