{"F": {"ts_code": "688610.SH", "name": "埃科光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230719", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 149.46, "pe_ttm": 104.6765, "pb": 6.1922, "dv_ttm": 0.1338, "total_mv": 1016328.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.5, 49.7, 45.4, 39.5, 40.3, 41.5], "rev_series": [0.7, 1.6, 2.6, 2.4, 2.5, 4.4], "np_series": [-0.3, 0.4, 0.7, 0.2, 0.2, 0.6], "roe_series": [-101.9, 29.1, 22.9, 1.7, 1.1, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.1, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": -0.0, "gm_median": 41.5, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 14.5, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.5, "fix_assets": 3.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.19, "capex_dep": 38.35, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 17.3, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 94.9, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 18.8, "np_cagr3": -3.1, "rev_yoy": 82.3, "np_yoy": 91.9, "np_vol": 149.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 74.6, "fwd_pe2": 45.1, "fwd_g1": 40.0, "fwd_g2": 65.0, "peg": 1.15, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["工业线扫描相机", 24.0], ["工业相机：工业线扫描相机", 24.0], ["工业面扫描相机", 19.0], ["工业相机：工业面扫描相机", 19.0]], "ret_prev_year": 79.2, "ret_prev2_year": -33.0, "ret_ytd": 141.8, "ret_pivot": 460.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.4, "ret_60": -38.0, "ret_120": 101.5, "ret_250": 137.8, "mdd_250": -55.0, "vol_250": 86.0, "pos_52w": 56.7}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 58, "hard": 26, "bondness": 36}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 104.7 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(9 篇研报)前瞻 PE 74.6 倍,次年 45.1 倍,PEG 1.15。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.5%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 -0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.5%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 38.35 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 104.7 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 138%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 86%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -38% / 102%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "埃科光电:PE 比行业中位高 54.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点。"]}}