{"F": {"ts_code": "688609.SH", "name": "九联科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "黑色家电", "sw3": "其他黑色家电", "ind": "黑色家电", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210323", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.81, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.6712, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 459840.5049, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.5, 19.5, 20.6, 11.6, 11.6, 10.6], "rev_series": [20.3, 28.0, 24.0, 21.7, 25.1, 23.9], "np_series": [1.4, 1.0, 0.6, -2.0, -1.4, -2.1], "roe_series": [17.3, 9.2, 4.7, -17.2, -14.5, -24.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.3, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 7.4, "gm_median": 11.6, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.63, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": -6.0, "roe_median": -14.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.6, "fix_assets": 11.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.67, "capex_dep": 3.16, "interest_debt": 10.6, "debt_ebitda": 17.0, "debt_ratio": 74.3, "debt_mv": 23.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -0.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 30.9, "np_yoy": 128.5, "np_vol": 165.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能终端", 81.0], ["通信模块及行业应用解决方案", 8.0], ["运营服务费", 4.0], ["运营服务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.7, "ret_prev2_year": -19.7, "ret_ytd": -13.7, "ret_pivot": 3.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.7, "ret_60": -19.1, "ret_120": 2.8, "ret_250": -25.8, "mdd_250": -36.9, "vol_250": 43.6, "pos_52w": 66.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 47, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 74%,有息负债 11 亿,经营现金流/市值 7.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 30%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 7.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%,稳定度 63%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 3.16 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -19% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「黑色家电」9 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.7% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 51%。", "九联科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.8个百分点。"]}}