{"F": {"ts_code": "688603.SH", "name": "天承科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "sw3": "电子化学品Ⅲ", "ind": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230710", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 118.0, "pe_ttm": 131.9309, "pb": 11.8495, "dv_ttm": 0.1187, "total_mv": 1471749.1, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.5, 28.6, 31.5, 35.7, 39.9, 40.0], "rev_series": [2.6, 3.8, 3.7, 3.4, 3.8, 4.7], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.9], "roe_series": [28.7, 20.0, 18.5, 8.2, 6.7, 7.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.6, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 35.7, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 17.3, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.8, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 11.85, "capex_dep": 19.79, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 13.5, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 33.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 8.0, "np_cagr3": 16.6, "rev_yoy": 43.7, "np_yoy": 67.7, "np_vol": 6.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 91.3, "fwd_pe2": 50.3, "fwd_g1": 44.0, "fwd_g2": 82.0, "peg": 1.11, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["沉铜电镀专用化学品", 44.0], ["合计特别调整", 5.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.6, "ret_prev2_year": 56.6, "ret_ytd": 57.7, "ret_pivot": 340.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.6, "ret_60": -27.3, "ret_120": 41.3, "ret_250": 36.0, "mdd_250": -61.0, "vol_250": 85.2, "pos_52w": 56.7}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 55, "hard": 12, "bondness": 25}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 131.9 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(6 篇研报)前瞻 PE 91.3 倍,次年 50.3 倍,PEG 1.11。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.7%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.7%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 19.79 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 131.9 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 36%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 85%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -27% / 41%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电子化学品Ⅱ」36 家中位:PE 93.9 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 29.9% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 44%。", "天承科技:PE 比行业中位高 38.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 25.1个百分点。"]}}