{"F": {"ts_code": "688602.SH", "name": "康鹏科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230720", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.8, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.314, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 353175.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.4, 34.5, 29.4, 28.2, 12.7, 16.0], "rev_series": [6.3, 10.0, 12.4, 9.8, 6.7, 7.7], "np_series": [0.9, 1.3, 1.8, 1.1, -0.5, -0.6], "roe_series": [8.4, 9.8, 10.5, 4.9, -1.8, -2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.4, "np_ttm": -1.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 28.2, "gm_std": 8.4, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": -13.0, "npm_median": 11.8, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.4, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.31, "capex_dep": 0.83, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 11.7, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 26.4, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -14.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -28.7, "np_yoy": -231.5, "np_vol": 68.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["新材料", 43.0], ["CDMO业务", 27.0], ["CDMO", 27.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.6, "ret_prev2_year": -38.1, "ret_ytd": -21.7, "ret_pivot": 13.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.9, "ret_60": -8.8, "ret_120": -17.5, "ret_250": -29.5, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 48.9, "pos_52w": 58.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 45, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 12%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 0.83 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -9% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "康鹏科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点。"]}}