{"F": {"ts_code": "688599.SH", "name": "天合光能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏电池组件", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200610", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.25, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2935, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2635388.6625, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.0, 14.1, 13.4, 15.9, 9.6, 5.2], "rev_series": [294.2, 444.8, 850.5, 1133.9, 802.8, 669.7], "np_series": [12.3, 18.0, 36.8, 55.3, -34.4, -70.3], "roe_series": [9.1, 11.2, 16.9, 19.1, -11.9, -29.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 679.0, "np_ttm": -43.8, "ocf_ttm": 101.3, "fcf_ttm": 66.3, "fcf_yield": 25.2, "ocf_yield": 38.4, "gm_median": 13.4, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": 4.2, "roe_median": 11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.6, "fix_assets": 259.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.27, "capex_dep": 0.62, "interest_debt": 382.5, "debt_ebitda": 29.3, "debt_ratio": 77.7, "debt_mv": 145.1, "payout": 49.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -7.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.0, "np_yoy": 90.8, "np_vol": 102.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 12.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["光伏产品", 52.0], ["系统解决方案", 28.0], ["储能业务", 7.0], ["数字能源服务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -14.2, "ret_prev2_year": -30.8, "ret_ytd": -32.0, "ret_pivot": -29.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -18.3, "ret_60": -21.2, "ret_120": -41.0, "ret_250": -32.7, "mdd_250": -52.2, "vol_250": 52.2, "pos_52w": 48.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 37, "hard": 36, "bondness": 52}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -43.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 78%,有息负债 382 亿,经营现金流/市值 38.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 25.2%(经营现金流/市值 38.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 0.62 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -18% / -21% / -41%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "天合光能:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}