{"F": {"ts_code": "688598.SH", "name": "金博股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "非金属材料Ⅱ", "sw3": "非金属材料Ⅲ", "ind": "非金属材料Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.79, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.7326, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 659874.8849, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [62.6, 57.3, 47.8, 27.4, -16.0, -2.1], "rev_series": [4.3, 13.4, 14.5, 10.7, 5.4, 8.0], "np_series": [1.7, 5.0, 5.5, 2.0, -8.1, -12.8], "roe_series": [21.6, 31.5, 14.0, 3.4, -14.5, -28.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.5, "np_ttm": -12.6, "ocf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_ttm": -3.9, "fcf_yield": -5.9, "ocf_yield": -2.4, "gm_median": 27.4, "gm_std": 28.1, "gm_stab": -0.03, "gm_chg_2022": -14.8, "npm_median": 19.0, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.6, "fix_assets": 25.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.73, "capex_dep": 1.21, "interest_debt": 6.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 27.1, "debt_mv": 9.2, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -17.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 11.1, "np_yoy": 15.7, "np_vol": 229.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 91.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["锂电领域产品", 26.0], ["电池产品", 26.0], ["热场系统系列产品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.4, "ret_prev2_year": -55.1, "ret_ytd": 8.3, "ret_pivot": 114.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.7, "ret_60": -8.1, "ret_120": 19.2, "ret_250": 2.0, "mdd_250": -60.1, "vol_250": 71.9, "pos_52w": 51.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 17, "hard": 76, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -12.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 27%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.4%,稳定度 -3%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.9%(经营现金流/市值 -2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.4%,稳定度 -3%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 1.21 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -8% / 19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非金属材料Ⅱ」14 家中位:PE 54.2 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 26.6% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 41%。", "金博股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.4个百分点。"]}}