{"F": {"ts_code": "688596.SH", "name": "正帆科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200820", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 60.4, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.7897, "dv_ttm": 0.1533, "total_mv": 1918729.82, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.3, 26.2, 27.5, 27.1, 26.0, 21.0], "rev_series": [11.1, 18.4, 27.0, 38.3, 54.7, 49.2], "np_series": [1.2, 1.7, 2.6, 4.0, 5.3, 1.4], "roe_series": [10.5, 9.4, 12.1, 14.8, 16.4, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 51.3, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 26.2, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 0.1, "npm_median": 9.7, "roe_median": 12.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.3, "fix_assets": 32.0, "goodwill_ratio": 5.2, "pb_calc": 5.59, "capex_dep": 1.76, "interest_debt": 40.1, "debt_ebitda": 11.8, "debt_ratio": 71.9, "debt_mv": 20.9, "payout": 39.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 22.0, "np_cagr3": -19.2, "rev_yoy": 10.6, "np_yoy": -153.0, "np_vol": 48.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 102.4, "fwd_pe2": 29.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 244.0, "peg": 0.42, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -10.4, "ret_prev2_year": -9.7, "ret_ytd": 91.6, "ret_pivot": 157.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.5, "ret_60": 27.4, "ret_120": 97.1, "ret_250": 55.6, "mdd_250": -50.0, "vol_250": 83.1, "pos_52w": 72.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 39, "bondness": 30}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 72%,有息负债 40 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 1.76 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 56%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 83%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / 27% / 97%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "正帆科技:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.3个百分点。"]}}