{"F": {"ts_code": "688593.SH", "name": "新相微", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230601", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.33, "pe_ttm": 1414.6558, "pb": 8.7569, "dv_ttm": 0.1521, "total_mv": 1347799.7302, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.3, 67.7, 41.4, 21.0, 14.9, 13.9], "rev_series": [2.2, 4.5, 4.3, 4.8, 5.1, 6.1], "np_series": [0.3, 1.5, 1.1, 0.3, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [63.5, 50.0, 18.1, 2.5, 0.5, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.4, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 21.0, "gm_std": 20.5, "gm_stab": 0.02, "gm_chg_2022": 13.0, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.0, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.76, "capex_dep": 0.23, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 21.2, "debt_ratio": 11.3, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 142.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 12.8, "np_cagr3": -56.2, "rev_yoy": 9.3, "np_yoy": 8.1, "np_vol": 218.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 969.6, "fwd_pe2": 414.6, "fwd_g1": 46.0, "fwd_g2": 134.0, "peg": 7.24, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["整合型显示芯片", 48.0], ["分离型显示驱动芯片", 24.0], ["分离型显示芯片", 24.0], ["液晶显示玻璃", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.3, "ret_prev2_year": 24.7, "ret_ytd": 45.7, "ret_pivot": 201.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.5, "ret_60": 1.4, "ret_120": -13.7, "ret_250": 57.0, "mdd_250": -40.3, "vol_250": 78.2, "pos_52w": 68.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 22, "hard": 18, "bondness": 58}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 1414.7 倍,估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(4 篇研报)前瞻 PE 969.6 倍,次年 414.6 倍,PEG 7.24。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.0%,稳定度 2%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 13.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.23 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1414.7 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 57%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / 1% / -14%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "新相微:PE 比行业中位高 1333.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点。"]}}