{"F": {"ts_code": "688592.SH", "name": "司南导航", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信终端及配件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230816", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.9, "pe_ttm": 227.8411, "pb": 2.9138, "dv_ttm": 0.2285, "total_mv": 277590.852, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.9, 54.7, 57.1, 52.2, 48.2, 51.3], "rev_series": [2.9, 2.9, 3.4, 4.1, 4.1, 5.3], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4, -0.3, 0.2], "roe_series": [14.0, 11.4, 12.8, 6.3, -3.4, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.3, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 52.2, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 4.2, "npm_median": 9.6, "roe_median": 6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.0, "fix_assets": 0.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.91, "capex_dep": 7.63, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 22.0, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 35.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 16.5, "np_cagr3": -24.2, "rev_yoy": 0.9, "np_yoy": -131.1, "np_vol": 104.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["数据采集设备", 20.0], ["数据应用及解决方案", 16.0], ["数据应用及系统解决方案", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.4, "ret_prev2_year": -27.9, "ret_ytd": -15.5, "ret_pivot": 51.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.1, "ret_60": -7.3, "ret_120": -24.5, "ret_250": -25.2, "mdd_250": -44.2, "vol_250": 51.3, "pos_52w": 64.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 6, "bondness": 18}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 227.8 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 52.2%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.2%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 7.63 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 227.8 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -7% / -24%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "司南导航:PE 比行业中位高 143.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 23.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点。"]}}