{"F": {"ts_code": "688589.SH", "name": "力合微", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.75, "pe_ttm": 191.2491, "pb": 2.9944, "dv_ttm": 0.5049, "total_mv": 287023.7875, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.9, 41.6, 41.3, 41.9, 44.5, 45.3], "rev_series": [2.2, 3.6, 5.0, 5.8, 5.5, 3.6], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.8, 1.1, 0.8, 0.2], "roe_series": [5.7, 5.7, 9.6, 11.7, 8.1, 1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.7, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 41.9, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -8.6, "npm_median": 14.9, "roe_median": 8.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.4, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.73, "capex_dep": 6.19, "interest_debt": 3.4, "debt_ebitda": 8.8, "debt_ratio": 31.2, "debt_mv": 12.0, "payout": 71.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -10.8, "np_cagr3": -35.1, "rev_yoy": 6.0, "np_yoy": -22.4, "np_vol": 55.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["基于自研芯片及核心技术的产品", 95.0], ["自主芯片", 5.0], ["其他配套产品", 0.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.9, "ret_prev2_year": -17.2, "ret_ytd": -12.8, "ret_pivot": 31.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.7, "ret_60": 2.5, "ret_120": -15.4, "ret_250": -20.0, "mdd_250": -40.5, "vol_250": 47.3, "pos_52w": 72.3}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 58, "hard": 4, "bondness": 63}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 191.2 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 2%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.9%),硬资产占比 2%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.9%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 6.19 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 191.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 2% / -15%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "力合微:PE 比行业中位高 109.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.0个百分点。"]}}