{"F": {"ts_code": "688586.SH", "name": "江航装备", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200731", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.36, "pe_ttm": 187.9304, "pb": 3.6169, "dv_ttm": 0.2289, "total_mv": 898961.3312, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.5, 43.6, 40.2, 38.4, 34.8, 26.4], "rev_series": [8.3, 9.5, 11.1, 12.1, 10.9, 9.5], "np_series": [1.9, 2.3, 2.4, 1.9, 1.3, 0.6], "roe_series": [14.2, 11.5, 11.0, 8.0, 5.0, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.2, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 38.4, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 15.9, "roe_median": 8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.1, "fix_assets": 5.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.62, "capex_dep": 0.61, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 31.7, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 54.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.3, "np_cagr3": -39.1, "rev_yoy": -6.4, "np_yoy": -19.6, "np_vol": 27.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 148.2, "fwd_pe2": 117.5, "fwd_g1": 27.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 5.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["航空产品", 28.0], ["特种制冷设备", 10.0], ["其他主营", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.7, "ret_prev2_year": -12.8, "ret_ytd": -12.7, "ret_pivot": 55.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.4, "ret_60": -2.8, "ret_120": -17.3, "ret_250": -10.0, "mdd_250": -46.6, "vol_250": 51.1, "pos_52w": 62.6}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 55, "hard": 26, "bondness": 41}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 187.9 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 148.2 倍,次年 117.5 倍,PEG 5.70。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.4%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.4%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.61 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 187.9 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -3% / -17%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "江航装备:PE 比行业中位高 114.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点。"]}}