{"F": {"ts_code": "688585.SH", "name": "上纬新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "合成树脂", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 139.37, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 47.7544, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 5621652.0129, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.4, 8.5, 13.0, 15.7, 15.9, 13.6], "rev_series": [19.5, 20.7, 18.6, 14.0, 14.9, 18.0], "np_series": [1.2, 0.1, 0.8, 0.7, 0.9, 0.4], "roe_series": [12.4, 1.2, 7.7, 6.0, 7.2, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.2, "np_ttm": -1.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 13.6, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.1, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 47.75, "capex_dep": 0.88, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 48.5, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 21.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -1.1, "np_cagr3": -21.3, "rev_yoy": 2.4, "np_yoy": -657.0, "np_vol": 244.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 9.9, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": -275.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["环保高性能耐腐蚀材料", 38.0], ["风电叶片用材料", 37.0], ["环保新型复合材料", 11.0], ["新型复合材料", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1821.4, "ret_prev2_year": -20.9, "ret_ytd": 9.4, "ret_pivot": 2676.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -17.7, "ret_60": -12.2, "ret_120": 12.4, "ret_250": 63.9, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 93.4, "pos_52w": 63.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 18, "bondness": 31}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 48%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.88 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 64%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 93%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -18% / -12% / 12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "上纬新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 20.8个百分点。"]}}