{"F": {"ts_code": "688584.SH", "name": "上海合晶", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体材料", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20240208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.07, "pe_ttm": 181.6153, "pb": 4.0872, "dv_ttm": 0.3966, "total_mv": 1677672.6171, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.3, 35.6, 42.8, 37.6, 29.0, 29.1], "rev_series": [null, null, 15.6, 13.5, 11.1, 13.1], "np_series": [null, null, 3.6, 2.5, 1.2, 1.3], "roe_series": [3.2, 10.4, 15.1, 9.2, 3.5, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.8, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_ttm": -7.3, "fcf_yield": -4.3, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 35.6, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 20.5, "npm_median": 15.9, "roe_median": 9.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 67.2, "fix_assets": 33.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.09, "capex_dep": 3.91, "interest_debt": 6.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 18.4, "debt_mv": 3.7, "payout": 111.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -5.6, "np_cagr3": -30.0, "rev_yoy": -5.1, "np_yoy": -55.2, "np_vol": 117.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 100.3, "fwd_pe2": 63.5, "fwd_g1": 81.0, "fwd_g2": 58.0, "peg": 1.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["产品销售", 42.0], ["受托加工", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.4, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 14.8, "ret_pivot": 99.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.2, "ret_60": -12.3, "ret_120": 19.3, "ret_250": -5.1, "mdd_250": -49.5, "vol_250": 71.1, "pos_52w": 54.3}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 59, "hard": 100, "bondness": 62}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 181.6 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 35.6%、固定资产占比 67%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 67%、毛利率 35.6% 两条都占,但所在行业(电子)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.6%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 20.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 67%,资本开支/折旧 3.91 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 181.6 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -12% / 19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "上海合晶:PE 比行业中位高 100.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 55.8个百分点。"]}}