{"F": {"ts_code": "688582.SH", "name": "芯动联科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "模拟芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 40.71, "pe_ttm": 88.1349, "pb": 6.4552, "dv_ttm": 0.7458, "total_mv": 1635479.8761, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [88.0, 85.4, 85.9, 83.0, 85.0, 85.8], "rev_series": [1.1, 1.7, 2.3, 3.2, 4.0, 5.2], "np_series": [0.5, 0.8, 1.2, 1.7, 2.2, 3.0], "roe_series": [15.9, 17.4, 20.6, 12.1, 10.0, 12.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.3, "np_ttm": 1.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 85.4, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 52.2, "roe_median": 12.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.4, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.46, "capex_dep": 2.44, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 2.6, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 32.2, "np_cagr3": 37.5, "rev_yoy": -38.1, "np_yoy": -76.4, "np_vol": 8.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 39.6, "fwd_pe2": 28.8, "fwd_g1": 123.0, "fwd_g2": 37.0, "peg": 1.07, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["MEMS陀螺仪", 72.0], ["MEMS加速度计", 14.0], ["惯性测量单元", 12.0], ["技术服务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.5, "ret_prev2_year": 31.0, "ret_ytd": -38.3, "ret_pivot": 30.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.3, "ret_60": -19.0, "ret_120": -34.2, "ret_250": -50.7, "mdd_250": -56.5, "vol_250": 54.0, "pos_52w": 50.1}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 83, "hard": 2, "bondness": 19}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 88.1 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 1%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(9 篇研报)前瞻 PE 39.6 倍,次年 28.8 倍,PEG 1.07。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 85.4%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 85.4%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 2.44 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 88.1 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -51%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -19% / -34%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "芯动联科:PE 比行业中位高 6.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 50.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.0个百分点。"]}}