{"F": {"ts_code": "688578.SH", "name": "艾力斯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20201202", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 110.55, "pe_ttm": 18.5718, "pb": 5.8789, "dv_ttm": 1.0855, "total_mv": 4974750.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [71.2, 98.9, 96.0, 96.1, 96.0, 96.8], "rev_series": [0.0, 5.3, 7.9, 20.2, 35.6, 51.9], "np_series": [-3.1, 0.2, 1.3, 6.4, 14.3, 21.9], "roe_series": [-15.3, 0.6, 4.2, 18.0, 30.9, 35.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 61.3, "np_ttm": 26.8, "ocf_ttm": 26.7, "fcf_ttm": 25.5, "fcf_yield": 5.1, "ocf_yield": 5.4, "gm_median": 96.1, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": 24.8, "npm_median": 31.9, "roe_median": 18.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.3, "fix_assets": 5.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.88, "capex_dep": 3.7, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 10.4, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 20.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 87.2, "np_cagr3": 156.0, "rev_yoy": 39.9, "np_yoy": 46.6, "np_vol": 214.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.4, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 17.4, "fwd_pe2": 15.1, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.16, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["药品销售收入", 98.0], ["技术授权及服务收入", 2.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 77.8, "ret_prev2_year": 48.4, "ret_ytd": 7.4, "ret_pivot": 188.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.0, "ret_60": 38.9, "ret_120": 18.5, "ret_250": 19.9, "mdd_250": -31.9, "vol_250": 47.9, "pos_52w": 83.5}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 94, "hard": 8, "bondness": 14}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["成长兑现", "轻资产现金牛", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 5%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 96.1%,稳定度 99%、ROE 近 5 年中位 18.0%。", "自由现金流/市值 5.1%,分红率 21%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 96.1%),硬资产占比 5%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.1%(经营现金流/市值 5.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 96.1%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 24.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 3.70 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.6 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 39% / 18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "艾力斯:PE 比行业中位低 18.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 43.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 24.5个百分点。"]}}