{"F": {"ts_code": "688577.SH", "name": "浙海德曼", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "机床工具", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200916", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 43.02, "pe_ttm": 75.6138, "pb": 6.556, "dv_ttm": 0.6641, "total_mv": 670215.4632, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.2, 34.4, 31.9, 26.8, 25.1, 25.9], "rev_series": [4.1, 5.4, 6.3, 6.6, 7.7, 8.8], "np_series": [0.5, 0.7, 0.6, 0.3, 0.3, 0.5], "roe_series": [9.7, 9.2, 7.1, 3.4, 2.7, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.4, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -1.7, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 26.8, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.9, "fix_assets": 6.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.56, "capex_dep": 5.66, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 48.6, "debt_mv": 3.9, "payout": 111.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.7, "np_cagr3": -5.7, "rev_yoy": 45.9, "np_yoy": 479.2, "np_vol": 50.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["高端型数控车床", 35.0], ["自动化生产线", 10.0], ["普及型数控车床", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 255.2, "ret_prev2_year": -42.1, "ret_ytd": -37.6, "ret_pivot": 218.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.7, "ret_60": -6.6, "ret_120": -11.8, "ret_250": -43.3, "mdd_250": -61.6, "vol_250": 65.0, "pos_52w": 44.6}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 49, "hard": 56, "bondness": 52}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 75.6 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.8%、固定资产占比 35%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.8%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.8%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 5.66 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 75.6 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -7% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "浙海德曼:PE 比行业中位高 25.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.1个百分点。"]}}