{"F": {"ts_code": "688576.SH", "name": "西山科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗耗材", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230606", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 39.43, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.5847, "dv_ttm": 0.8472, "total_mv": 266717.1376, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [66.1, 69.7, 68.6, 69.7, 70.4, 63.7], "rev_series": [1.3, 2.1, 2.6, 3.6, 3.4, 3.4], "np_series": [0.1, 0.6, 0.8, 1.2, 1.0, 0.5], "roe_series": [32.6, 28.6, 20.6, 9.1, 5.0, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -2.8, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 69.7, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 2.5, "npm_median": 29.3, "roe_median": 9.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.1, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.58, "capex_dep": 2.62, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 6.8, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 50.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 9.2, "np_cagr3": -11.7, "rev_yoy": -22.9, "np_yoy": -174.1, "np_vol": 136.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 20.5, "fwd_pe2": 15.9, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 0.71, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.3, "ret_prev2_year": -35.4, "ret_ytd": -5.9, "ret_pivot": 12.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.2, "ret_60": -11.0, "ret_120": -21.7, "ret_250": -16.9, "mdd_250": -38.0, "vol_250": 38.4, "pos_52w": 68.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 78, "hard": 37, "bondness": 37}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 7%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 69.7%),硬资产占比 23%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.8%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 69.7%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 2.62 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -11% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "西山科技:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点。"]}}