{"F": {"ts_code": "688570.SH", "name": "天玛智控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230605", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.77, "pe_ttm": 182.8269, "pb": 1.4999, "dv_ttm": 0.677, "total_mv": 639541.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.2, 51.8, 47.0, 46.3, 44.4, 30.3], "rev_series": [11.6, 15.5, 19.7, 22.1, 18.6, 16.2], "np_series": [3.0, 3.7, 4.0, 4.2, 3.4, 1.0], "roe_series": [33.5, 34.4, 29.0, 14.7, 8.0, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.1, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 46.3, "gm_std": 7.2, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -8.2, "npm_median": 19.2, "roe_median": 14.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.4, "fix_assets": 4.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.5, "capex_dep": 1.51, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 25.7, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 42.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -6.3, "np_cagr3": -37.3, "rev_yoy": -1.5, "np_yoy": -90.4, "np_vol": 33.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 53.7, "fwd_pe2": 42.8, "fwd_g1": 240.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 2.15, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["无人化智能开采控制系统解决方案", 33.0], ["备件", 11.0], ["运维服务及其他", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.4, "ret_prev2_year": -28.8, "ret_ytd": -19.4, "ret_pivot": 1.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.0, "ret_60": -5.1, "ret_120": -20.9, "ret_250": -33.2, "mdd_250": -37.9, "vol_250": 26.7, "pos_52w": 66.4}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 56, "hard": 13, "bondness": 41}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 182.8 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 53.7 倍,次年 42.8 倍,PEG 2.15。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 46.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.3%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 1.51 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 182.8 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -5% / -21%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "天玛智控:PE 比行业中位高 105.4倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点。"]}}