{"F": {"ts_code": "688567.SH", "name": "孚能科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200717", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.02, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2392, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1102337.7178, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.9, -3.3, 7.5, 6.8, 11.3, 9.2], "rev_series": [11.2, 35.0, 115.9, 164.4, 116.8, 91.2], "np_series": [-3.3, -9.5, -9.3, -18.7, -3.3, -7.5], "roe_series": [-3.9, -9.8, -8.7, -16.7, -3.3, -7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 83.8, "np_ttm": -9.8, "ocf_ttm": 18.2, "fcf_ttm": 11.9, "fcf_yield": 10.8, "ocf_yield": 16.5, "gm_median": 7.5, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.32, "gm_chg_2022": -8.4, "npm_median": -8.2, "roe_median": -8.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.1, "fix_assets": 97.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.24, "capex_dep": 0.62, "interest_debt": 37.6, "debt_ebitda": 10.4, "debt_ratio": 58.7, "debt_mv": 34.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -7.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -16.9, "np_yoy": -145.1, "np_vol": 96.2, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["动力电池系统", 46.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.9, "ret_prev2_year": -28.9, "ret_ytd": -42.4, "ret_pivot": 3.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.7, "ret_60": -16.1, "ret_120": -36.2, "ret_250": -49.6, "mdd_250": -58.8, "vol_250": 41.2, "pos_52w": 41.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 19, "hard": 72, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 45%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 7.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 10.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 7.5%,稳定度 32%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.8%(经营现金流/市值 16.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.5%,稳定度 32%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 0.62 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -50%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 42%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -16% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "孚能科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.3个百分点。"]}}