{"F": {"ts_code": "688565.SH", "name": "力源科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210513", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.54, "pe_ttm": 167.1998, "pb": 3.4808, "dv_ttm": 0.26, "total_mv": 172788.42, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.8, 20.3, 21.1, 7.7, 14.1, 15.3], "rev_series": [2.7, 3.2, 2.0, 2.6, 3.7, 2.8], "np_series": [0.4, 0.1, -0.4, -0.9, 0.0, 0.1], "roe_series": [11.0, 2.6, -6.0, -16.4, 0.5, 1.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.6, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 15.3, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -9.6, "npm_median": 0.7, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.8, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.48, "capex_dep": 0.19, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 45.2, "debt_mv": 3.4, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 11.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -20.9, "np_yoy": 49.9, "np_vol": 211.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["凝结水精处理系统设备", 19.0], ["凝结水精处理", 19.0], ["除盐水处理(含海水淡化)系统设备", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 94.8, "ret_prev2_year": -31.9, "ret_ytd": 3.4, "ret_pivot": 172.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.2, "ret_60": 13.7, "ret_120": -21.4, "ret_250": 2.4, "mdd_250": -45.2, "vol_250": 41.2, "pos_52w": 76.2}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 35, "hard": 12, "bondness": 30}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 167 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 45%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.19 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 167.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 14% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "力源科技:PE 比行业中位高 141.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点。"]}}