{"F": {"ts_code": "688561.SH", "name": "奇安信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "横向通用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.81, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.6957, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1897344.7587, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [59.6, 60.0, 64.3, 65.4, 56.0, 50.3], "rev_series": [41.6, 58.1, 62.2, 64.4, 43.5, 43.9], "np_series": [-3.3, -5.5, 0.6, 0.7, -13.8, -12.9], "roe_series": [-4.4, -5.6, 0.6, 0.7, -14.6, -15.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 41.5, "np_ttm": -9.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 60.0, "gm_std": 5.6, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 4.8, "npm_median": -9.5, "roe_median": -5.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.5, "fix_assets": 12.9, "goodwill_ratio": 8.8, "pb_calc": 2.7, "capex_dep": 1.57, "interest_debt": 33.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 48.2, "debt_mv": 17.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -11.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -14.1, "np_yoy": 46.6, "np_vol": 818.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.6, "ret_prev2_year": -33.1, "ret_ytd": -21.8, "ret_pivot": 27.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.2, "ret_60": 16.4, "ret_120": -17.2, "ret_250": -24.7, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 45.3, "pos_52w": 63.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 73, "hard": 15, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -9.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 48%,有息负债 33 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 60.0%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 60.0%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.57 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 16% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "奇安信:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}