{"F": {"ts_code": "688559.SH", "name": "海目星", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "激光设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200909", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 53.49, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.3525, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1325262.891, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.9, 24.9, 30.5, 29.2, 21.3, 20.6], "rev_series": [13.2, 19.8, 41.1, 48.0, 45.2, 42.2], "np_series": [0.8, 1.1, 3.8, 3.2, -1.6, -8.8], "roe_series": [7.6, 7.5, 21.3, 14.7, -5.9, -31.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 56.3, "np_ttm": -1.2, "ocf_ttm": 24.2, "fcf_ttm": 18.7, "fcf_yield": 14.1, "ocf_yield": 18.3, "gm_median": 24.9, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": 0.6, "npm_median": 5.5, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.8, "fix_assets": 23.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 5.35, "capex_dep": 5.56, "interest_debt": 23.9, "debt_ebitda": 22.1, "debt_ratio": 85.2, "debt_mv": 18.0, "payout": 6.2, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 0.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 84.6, "np_yoy": 107.3, "np_vol": 227.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["锂电激光及自动化设备", 28.0], ["消费类电子激光及自动化设备", 9.0], ["光伏激光及自动化设备", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.7, "ret_prev2_year": -3.4, "ret_ytd": 11.3, "ret_pivot": 107.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.4, "ret_60": -15.0, "ret_120": -7.2, "ret_250": 73.8, "mdd_250": -52.2, "vol_250": 69.8, "pos_52w": 63.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 22, "bondness": 36}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 85%,有息负债 24 亿,经营现金流/市值 18.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 14.1%(经营现金流/市值 18.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.9%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 5.56 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 74%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / -15% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "海目星:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.0个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}